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_____________________________ What you may have already known: What you may NOT have known: What we are putting into the atmosphere today will not be felt or detected in terms of global warming for another 50 years or more. The discernible warming today due to fossil fuel burning comes from prior to 1950. Not to slow global warming now is madness. Positive feedback loops mean that carbon or methane sinks become greenhouse gas sources (emitters), and rising temperatures cause more release of the gases, causing quicker global warming which releases more gases more quickly, and so onthe runaway greenhouse effect. The Arctics permafrost is melting, releasing CO2 and methane contained there; ocean temperatures are rising which kills phytoplankton that soak up carbon; ocean water expands when heated and would engulf more land, killing vegetation that releases CO2. Meanwhile, bodies of water hold heat while ice reflects it away. Vast amounts of frozen methane on sea bottoms can be released, contributing to oceanic and atmospheric warming. Species are being driven extinct at a rate of perhaps over one hundred a day, before much global warming has even hit. Individual and mass action is clearly required now; we must not wait to see what Al Gore would do. He supports more highway building, which increases motor vehicle use. U.S. automobiles are the single biggest contributor to greenhouse-gas emissions. If non-petroleum fuels were the new propulsion for vehicles, the amount of CO2 emissions would increase with electric vehicles charged up on a fossil-fuel electric utility grid. But most emissions from cars are from the mining and manufacturing of the cars and components. The Kyoto Protocol, a United Nations-spawned proposed treaty adopted in 1997, calls for the U.S. to cut greenhouse gases by 7% of 1990 levels. The Senate has not yet ratified it. Meanwhile, emissions have risen, to over 11% beyond 1990 levels. So, emissions are supposed to go down by 18% between 2008-2012, assuming they stopped going up now. The revised goal for arithmetic accuracy by then may have to be 25%, although that is less than half of what the climate needsassuming other nations came through too. Unless this happens, the result may be the runaway greenhouse effect. Scientists with the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in 1995 that the worlds fossil-fuels emissions reduction must be 60-80%. In Kyoto, Fossil Fuels Policy Action was advised that transport is the sector accounting for the rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the 1990s. To offset this means no new roads globally. It means retiring cars as Cuba did upon losing its Soviet oil. It means massive birth control. It means neighbors sharing the use of ovens to cook meals, and more. In June 2000 the San Francisco Chronicle referred to the Global Warming Debate in a headline. This adds to confusion and prevents needed action. The reality of climate-change is not getting through, despite the alternative media. The U.S. government demands cheaper gasoline from the oil companies and more oil from OPEC. With that kind of leadership, when it knows full well what global warming is doing, our choosing lifestyle change on the individual level is what the Earth demands. In the process of a mass movement we will save money and improve health and sociability. Due to heatwaves at present, perhaps due to global warming, energy shortages exist for electric power. This seems like the best reason and time to implement Kyoto-type cuts in consumption to cut emissions. The technofix hope, pinned on renewable energy, can be a misleading dead-end when we consider dwindling oils unique applications, and we face existing overpopulation propped up by cheap petroleum. The technofix is well supported in the environmental movements literature because the industrial approach gets well funded. The inefficient, overbuilt infrastructure that the technofix would attempt to preserve relies on oils non-energy uses: e.g., asphalt, tires and plastic. This documents list of steps to take is limited. Be creative! Eventually, a natural balance can be restored, and we will along the way achieve local food-supply security through non-petroleum farming and non-oil transport and trade. The steps in the Pledge for Climate Stabilization would aid the grassroots movement to fight climate destabilization. Legislation and court decisions limiting secondhand smoke was possible through active respect for individual and public health. To pass and enforce laws against motor-vehicle exhaust is harder than fighting tobacco companies, because the national and global economy would collapse without ongoing sales of new motor vehicles. Some would welcome collapse, but society is already challenged to adequately care for stockpiles of nuclear weapons and radioactive waste. There is hope in grassroots, nonviolent direct action. It is peaceful when people in the oppositionthose in denialare thought of as lacking information or in experience in using courage. Shutting down the WTO meeting peacefully in Seattle last fall proves people can be motivated to turn off the televisions and computers, get out of their cars, and make a long-term difference. Ticking Time Bomb: the Methane BurpJohn Atcheson The Arctic Council's recent report on the effects of global warming in the far north paints a grim picture: global floods, extinction of polar bears and other marine mammals, collapsed fisheries. But it ignored a ticking time bomb buried in the Arctic tundra. There are enormous quantities of naturally occurring greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern muds and at the bottom of the seas. These ices, called clathrates, contain 3,000 times as much methane as is in the atmosphere. Methane is more than 20 times as strong a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide. Now here's the scary part. A temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause these gases to volatilize and "burp" into the atmosphere, which would further raise temperatures, which would release yet more methane, heating the Earth and seas further, and so on. There's 400 gigatons of methane locked in the frozen arctic tundra - enough to start this chain reaction - and the kind of warming the Arctic Council predicts is sufficient to melt the clathrates and release these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Once triggered, this cycle could result in runaway global warming the likes of which even the most pessimistic doomsayers aren't talking about. An apocalyptic fantasy concocted by hysterical environmentalists? Unfortunately, no. Strong geologic evidence suggests something similar has happened at least twice before. The most recent of these catastrophes occurred about 55 million years ago in what geologists call the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), when methane burps caused rapid warming and massive die-offs, disrupting the climate for more than 100,000 years. The granddaddy of these catastrophes occurred 251 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period, when a series of methane burps came close to wiping out all life on Earth. More than 94 percent of the marine species present in the fossil record disappeared suddenly as oxygen levels plummeted and life teetered on the verge of extinction. Over the ensuing 500,000 years, a few species struggled to gain a foothold in the hostile environment. It took 20 million to 30 million years for even rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish themselves and for forests to regrow. In some areas, it took more than 100 million years for ecosystems to reach their former healthy diversity. Geologist Michael J. Benton lays out the scientific evidence for this epochal tragedy in a recent book, When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. As with the PETM, greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from increased volcanic activity, warmed the earth and seas enough to release massive amounts of methane from these sensitive clathrates, setting off a runaway greenhouse effect. The cause of all this havoc? In both cases, a temperature increase of about 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit, about the upper range for the average global increase today's models predict can be expected from burning fossil fuels by 2100. But these models could be the tail wagging the dog since they don't add in the effect of burps from warming gas hydrates. Worse, as the Arctic Council found, the highest temperature increases from human greenhouse gas emissions will occur in the arctic regions - an area rich in these unstable clathrates. If we trigger this runaway release of methane, there's no turning back. No do-overs. Once it starts, it's likely to play out all the way. Humans appear to be capable of emitting carbon dioxide in quantities comparable to the volcanic activity that started these chain reactions. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, burning fossil fuels releases more than 150 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes - the equivalent of nearly 17,000 additional volcanoes the size of Hawaii's Kilauea. And that is the time bomb the Arctic Council ignored. How likely is it that humans will cause methane burps by burning fossil fuels? No one knows. But it is somewhere between possible and likely at this point, and it becomes more likely with each passing year that we fail to act. So forget rising sea levels, melting ice caps, more intense storms, more floods, destruction of habitats and the extinction of polar bears. Forget warnings that global warming might turn some of the world's major agricultural areas into deserts and increase the range of tropical diseases, even though this is the stuff we're pretty sure will happen. Instead, let's just get with the Bush administration's policy of pre-emption. We can't afford to have the first sign of a failed energy policy be the mass extinction of life on Earth. We have to act now. John Atcheson, a geologist, has held a variety of policy positions in several federal government agencies.
(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the above material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. Culture Change has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is Culture Change endorsed or sponsored by the originator.) 'If
the Land Gets Sick and Dies, So will the People' May 12, 2004
'Look at the water; it's glistening like diamonds. This is beautiful, beautiful country," said Frances Valiquette, gazing across the wilderness surrounding the Poplar River reserve in the province of Manitoba. "We have 10 kids and we raised them all off the land. We lived off the land and lived good. Marcel, my husband, fished and trapped and we sold the pelts for money. We never saw welfare," she added. The 70-year-old First Nation elder and her husband have spent their lives among these creeks and paper birch thickets. Two hundred and fifty miles north of Winnipeg, and accessible only by air, snow road in winter and boat in summer, the reserve has proved a generous home to 1,000 indigenous Canadians. Yet the couple believe the land is dying. Its wildlife is vanishing; its weather freakish; its waters dangerously unpredictable. The last few years have seen intense storms, fierce gales and scorching summers. Their beloved river runs suddenly high, too risky to canoe; then Lake Winnipeg drops so low that boat motors break on the rocks. "In the past, if we set 12 traps we would probably get 10 rabbits. But we only got two or three this whole winter," Ms Valiquette said, shaking her head. "There was a time when you couldn't step anywhere without treading on frogs, but even they've disappeared. You just can't live off the land." She is convinced the cause of these devastating changes is simple: global warming. And if she is right, the problems are only beginning. Scientists warn that by 2080, winter temperatures in the central Canadian province of Manitoba will be 5C to 15C higher than at present. Internationally, the average surface temperature will rise 1-3C over the next few decades and extreme weather could create 150 million environmental refugees by 2050. Tony Blair last month described global warming as the planet's most serious long-term threat. It was Canada which put the issue on the world agenda by hosting the first international climate change conference 15 years ago. Today, experts will convene in the same city, Toronto, to lobby for rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and find the best ways of achieving them. The conference is the work of the Climate Group, a new body bringing together leading firms, governments and non-governmental organisations from around the world. But while the goals have not changed, the tactics and rhetoric have. The Climate Group's focus is on tackling major polluters - rather than individuals - and it promises that cutting emis sions means instant gains, not painful sacrifices. They cite the example of BP, which spent £11m cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 10% in three years, and saved £365m. "You don't have to go and live in a teepee in Wales. A lot could be done without having any noticeable impact on people's quality of life," said Steve Howard, the group's chief executive. The keys, they believe, are to tap into clean energy sources, such as hydroelectricity and wind power, while improving the efficiency of buildings and equipment. "Canada is so richly endowed with resources that we tend to focus on solutions on the supply side. In the EU you don't have the same resources so there's more emphasis on the demand or efficiency side. Neither is the complete solution; it's about finding a balance," says Ken Klassen, of the government's natural resources agency. The group does not suggest other countries copy Canadian strategies; rather, they adopt its zeal and find solutions which exploit their own strengths. In Mr Howard's words, "There are good examples everywhere - but different good examples." In London, for instance, the congestion charge has cut carbon dioxide emissions in the charging zone by 19%. Nicky Gavron, Labour's candidate for deputy mayor and the assembly member leading on environmental issues for Mayor Ken Livingstone, describes the task of further cuts as "daunting" but achievable with boldness. The alternative, believes the Climate Group, is unthinkable. Countries such as Canada, with substantial Arctic tracts, are disproportionately affected by the rising temperatures that result from the massive use of fossil fuels, and the resulting rise in gases which trap heat in the atmosphere. "If there's a canary in terms of global warming, I believe it's the north," said Gary Doer, Manitoba's premier. "The cost of doing nothing is too great for Canada." The effects are already visible at Poplar River. Moose; martens; lynx; all have dwindled or vanished from the region. Wild rice, once abundant, is scarce. The sun scorches berries before they can ripen. When algae blooms spread across Lake Winnipeg in summer, the fish vanish and the empty nets become so thick with the plant that they look like green blankets. "You see how beautiful this land is? That didn't happen by mistake," said Ray Rabliauskas, the reserve's land management coordinator. "Elders like Frances have worked hard to keep it that way, and it should be intact for our children and grandchildren. If the land gets sick and dies, then so will the people." A Region to Make Others Green With Envy Manitoba authorities are building a 10,000-household estate in which every new home will be heated and cooled by a geothermal heat pump, tapping into the energy produced by the earth and eliminating the need for gas pipes It will introduce 10% ethanol to petrol by 2007, cutting emissions by the equivalent of 10,000 vehicles Its new generation hydros will reduce the impact of dam-building and produce 0.5% of the greenhouse gases emitted by a coal-fired plant generating the same amount of power It is pressing for the creation of a national grid so it can export clean energy across Canada. Wind and water sources together could produce enough power to replace 10 nuclear plants Toronto is the only city in the world with an agency exclusively devoted to tackling climate change. It has already saved £8m on an initial outlay of £6m, while slashing carbon dioxide emissions in its own buildings by 42%. Ken Livingstone wants London to launch a similar body if he wins a second term as mayor Pioneering projects in the city include the introduction of water cooling for buildings - circulating waters drawn from Lake Ontario - in place of energy-hungry air conditioning
The Canadian federal government
gives owners cash rewards for improving their home's energy efficiency - CHRIS HAWLEY, Associated Press Writer Tuesday, June 15, 2004 The world is turning to dust, with lands the size of Rhode Island becoming desert wasteland every year and the problem threatening to send millions of people fleeing to greener countries, the United Nations says. One-third of the Earth's surface is at risk, driving people into cities and destroying agriculture in vast swaths of Africa. Thirty-one percent of Spain is threatened, while China has lost 36,000 square miles to desert -- an area the size of Indiana -- since the 1950s. This week the United Nations marks the 10th anniversary of the Convention to Combat Desertification, a plan aimed at stopping the phenomenon. Despite the efforts, the trend seems to be picking up speed -- doubling its pace since the 1970s. "It's a creeping catastrophe," said Michel Smitall, a spokesman for the U.N. secretariat that oversees the 1994 accord. "Entire parts of the world might become uninhabitable." Slash-and-burn agriculture, sloppy conservation, overtaxed water supplies and soaring populations are mostly to blame. But global warming is taking its toll, too. The United Nations is holding a ceremony in Bonn, Germany, on Thursday to mark World Day to Combat Desertification, and will hold a meeting in Brazil this month to take stock of the problem. The warning comes as a controversial movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" is whipping up interest in climate change, and as rivers and lakes dry up in the American West, giving Americans a taste of what's to come elsewhere. The United Nations says: * From the mid-1990s to 2000, 1,374 square miles have turned into deserts each year -- an area about the size of Rhode Island. That's up from 840 square miles in the 1980s, and 624 square miles during the 1970s. * By 2025, two-thirds of arable land in Africa will disappear, along with one-third of Asia's and one-fifth of South America's. * Some 135 million people -- equivalent to the populations of France and Germany combined -- are at risk of being displaced. Most at risk are dry regions on the edges of deserts -- places like sub-Saharan Africa or the Gobi Desert in China, where people are already struggling to eke out a living from the land. As populations expand, those regions have become more stressed. Trees are cut for firewood, grasslands are overgrazed, fields are over-farmed and lose their nutrients, water becomes scarcer and dirtier. Technology can make the problem worse. In parts of Australia, irrigation systems are pumping up salty water and slowly poisoning farms. In Saudi Arabia, herdsmen can use water trucks instead of taking their animals from oasis to oasis -- but by staying in one place, the herds are getting bigger and eating all the grass. In Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, coastal resorts are swallowing up water that once moistened the wilderness. Many farmers in those countries still flood their fields instead of using more miserly "drip irrigation," and the resulting shortages are slowly baking the life out of the land. The result is a patchy "rash" of dead areas, rather than an easy-to-see expansion of existing deserts, scientists say. These areas have their good times and bad times as the weather changes. But in general, they are getting bigger and worse-off. "It's not as dramatic as a flood or a big disaster like an earthquake," said Richard Thomas of the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas in Aleppo, Syria. "There are some bright spots and hot spots. But overall, there is a trend toward increasing degradation." The trend is speeding up, but it has been going on for centuries, scientists say. Fossilized pollen and seeds, along with ancient tools like grinding stones, show that much of the Middle East, the Mediterranean and North Africa were once green. The Sahara itself was a savanna, and rock paintings show giraffes, elephants and cows once lived there. Global warming contributes to the problem, making many dry areas drier, scientists say. In the last century, average temperatures have risen over 1 degree Fahrenheit worldwide, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. As for the American Southwest, it is too early to tell whether its six-year drought could turn to something more permanent. But scientists note that reservoir levels are dropping as cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas expand. "In some respects you may have greener vegetation showing up in people's yards, but you may be using water that was destined for the natural environment," said Stuart Marsh of the University of Arizona's Office of Arid Lands Studies. "That might have an effect on the biodiversity surrounding that city." The Global Change Research Program says global warming could eventually make the Southwest wetter -- but it will also cause more extreme weather, meaning harsher droughts that could kill vegetation. Now, the Southwest drought has become so severe that even the sagebrush is dying. "The lack of water and the overuse of water, that is going to be a
threat to the United States," Thomas said. "In other parts of the
world, the problem is poverty that causes people to overuse the land. Most of
these ecological systems have tipping points, and once you go past them, things
go downhill." On the Web: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification: www.unccd.int International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas : www.icarda.org/ University of Arizona Office of Arid Lands Studies: ag.arizona.edu/OALS/oals/oals.html (In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the above material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. Culture Change has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is Culture Change endorsed or sponsored by the originator.) -------
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