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| Nonprofit founded in 1988 |
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"Predict and Provide" Planning is a Dead End Imbedded in the culture of transportation bureaucracies throughout North America is a "predict and provide" approach to transportation management. This approach, based on the assumption that the predicted traffic growth must be provided for at all costs, inevitably results in promoting further congestion. Here is how it works: 1. A traffic study is conducted, basing future traffic predictions on past trends and travel habits (themselves the result of catering to predicted traffic demand). 2. These traffic predictions show that in 20 years the present road system will be unable to handle the volume of traffic predicted. 3. Road space for the predicted traffic is provided for in the present. These roads, by their very design, are expected to have spare capacity to take traffic for the next 20 years. 4. Road expansion projects encourage cities to spread out as car travel times are reduced, allowing for access to more affordable suburban housing. 5. Ridership on public transport declines as trip time for the car is reduced. Sprawling communities make it impossible for transit to be efficient or economical. As ridership decreases, transit service further deteriorates, pushing more people into cars. 6. The increase in automobile use leads to the clogging of the expanded road system within a couple of years of its completion. Transportation planners attend conferences and write articles in professional journals congratulating themselves on their foresight in predicting the need for the expanded road system. 7. A new traffic study is then conducted, based on the higher-than-expected road usage. This of course leads to the conclusion that the road will be hopelessly inadequate before 20 years is up, thus requiring further expansion programs. 8. Back to #1 (above). (Derived from Citizens Advocating Responsible Transportation. 1993. pp. 12-13) |
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