Brown is great on warning us of ecological collapse, but he has never been able face petrocollapse. He seems to really believe that wind energy will power the present size car-fleet, as if this makes for a sustainable economy. Not to pick on this very bright, exemplary man: there is little funding for those who openly anticipate petrocollapse and system-replacement, so it makes political and economic sense for one to rather support a popular technofix.

Yet, if a real tsunami is coming our way and can be seen in the distance, it is not a "maybe" that can blow over as we cling to our positions. Such positions range from moderate reform of energy usage to sweeping policy change. However, megacorporations do run the show today. Some officials and very well-off folks want, in effect, people to keep quiet and to trust the government to do its wondrous New Orleans-style magic. Radical change is resisted until the tsunami of nature’s or of social forces crash down and swamp the landscape.

There is room for many analyses and interpretations of our interesting times. But this does not mean that all disciplines are equal, e.g., oil analyst or lawyer, organic farmer or bureaucrat. Nor do our interesting times involving oil mean that just any opinion is equally valid; some things are known. Such as, civilizations tumble and empires do fall, and it’s mainly due to resource depletion. At our DC Petrocollapse Conference on May 6, 2006, one speaker unintentionally weakened a common vision of most of the speakers by asserting "No one knows what peak oil outcome will be like." This sounds reasonable on its face, but some things are inescapable: billions of us cannot continue to be fed for many days without endless petroleum. On the positive side, there’s the inescapable likelihood: that people will simply have to come together to utilize their local ecosystems on some kind of community level to guarantee survival. Ultimately, a sustainable culture is achieved universally, with all due diversity and difficulties, if the race is to endure and evolve.

Not wanting to see tumultuous change or "severe economic hardship" – as the U.S. Department of Energy has been advised will be the price of not preparing for peak oil (Hirsch, et al 2005 study) – prompts many of us to offer wishful speculation on the experience in store for an oil addicted population.

A gifted Peak Oil activist and chronicler (Peak Oil News daily) is Tom Whipple. His latest column in the Falls Church News-Press is "The Peak Oil Crisis - Powerdown or Collapse?" Although he accurately represented the negative aspect of our position as organizers of the conference, he made a case for an outcome flowing from Peak Oil other than collapse. I was surprised that he seemed to back away from agreeing with me that collapse was our common fate. His reasoning is that "the truth is likely to fall somewhere in between" and that the nation has overcome big challenges before (with the aid of cheap fossil fuels, however).

A tsunami is not automatically a half-tsunami just because there are different opinions. Some opinions are founded more closely on reality than others. And some are often prescriptions for a version of the status quo. One thing for sure, we will be finding out soon.

Our friend Mr. Whipple missed the message of culture change as the real process at hand and also as the answer to living in a future not as dreary as he says we foresee. Additionally, an analysis of the effect of permanent, terminal shortage that is peak oil requires us to anticipate the oil market’s role in exacerbating shortage. When people can’t get to work or get food – after we have pigged-out on petroleum as long as possible and failed to decrease population in a compassionate, orderly, gradual way – die-off and collapse must hit hard. Mr. Whipple holds out for "explosive growth in mass transit, alternative vehicles and ride sharing," which appears hopeful of minimum disruption. But we basically agree about Peak Oil, as he concludes: "One thing is sure however, the peaking of world oil production is certain to launch a round of social and economic changes comparable to the advent of the industrial age."

Powerdown was written by Richard Heinberg. He believes that there will be a collapse. ‘Nuff said. He spoke at our Petrocollapse Conference and news conference, although his book spells out options for a softer landing than hard collapse and wars – if we as society made the effort. There are preparations for a decent "Plan B" here and there. But aside from Post Carbon Institute’s growing relocalization network, the effort is not quite being made. In the diplomatic realm, a major hope lies in the international Oil Depletion Protocol, proposed by Dr. Colin Campbell, and spearheaded by Richard Heinberg.

The Washington Post "kept a lid on" our Petrocollapse Conference even though it was national and in its back yard. We virtually spoon-fed the publicity info to three departments at the Post. The Washington Post, like so many other news organizations, carefully chooses your news. In avoiding the subject of peak oil, the newspaper appears to pretend that the American Empire will keep muddling along as if we are a united people blessed by eternal resources. Simultaneously, the Post’s brilliant acquisition of a cartoonist, Tom Toles, lets fly with zingers such as May 16th’s cartoon: He compares the capitalist’s non-comprehension of why workers don’t appreciate the economy to a meat packer’s non-comprehension of cattle not appreciating their place in the operation.

People may not rise up, as a casual reader may correctly believe as he or she may dismiss this essay or Tom Tole’s message. The point is that whether people rise up or not – and they tend to do it only when physically hungry enough – the system is set to implode from its own contradictions and excesses. Rather than rise up, people may stampede until their final supply of calories gives out. Petroleum addiction is the top item of vulnerability on any given day. As the band Chicago sang in 1969, "I know it’s hard for you to change your way of life… but if we don’t, my friend, there’s no life for you, no world for me."

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