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"An
'energy-limited economy' is one where more energy cannot be had at any
price. The global economy will become 'energy-limited' once global oil
production peaksÖ." - Jay Hanson Iraqi
Oil Not Enough for U.S. by Stuart H. Rodman The
forces of nature are poised to unleash a powerful salvo of potential kill
shots at America and even if powered by all the oil in Iraq, we will be
unable to stop it. Consider the following: Tens
of millions lost at sea. Not from a terror attack or in some sci-fi
scareflick, but in their own homes when Americaís east coast is
swallowed up by a raging surge from the North Atlantic. Thatís what will
happen when the Cumbre
Vieja volcano on La Palma erupts
in the Canary Islands off the West Coast of Africa, sending a rockslide of
biblical proportions splashing into the sea. And scientists agree, itís
not a question of ìifî but when. The
threat from so called ìmega-tsunamisî like the one awaiting us from
off the coast of Africa is not the only bad news from nature. Residents of
our planetís northern hemisphere have only recently been learning about
the catastrophic threat of super volcanoes like the active one in
Americaís own Yellowstone Park which has defoliated North America and
wiped out most of the worldís food supply during its last and most
likely not its final eruption. But over the last several years though,
Geologists have told the UK Government that the country risks being hit by
a giant wave of water that could destroy many coastal communities, ìExperts at
University College London (UCL) have contacted the science minister Lord
Sainsbury to warn him that a collapsing volcano in the Canary Islands
could send a wall of water, hundreds of metres high, sweeping out over the
Atlantic Oceanî. The devastation
would be so widespread that not only the East Coast of the United States
and the Caribbean would be submerged by the event but also even parts of
Great Britain would succumb to the disaster. According to the BBC, ìDr. Simon
Day, of Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, UCL, says the western flank
of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma is unstable and could collapse
during a major eruption. This might send half a trillion tonnes of rock
crashing into the sea at onceî. The BBC report
goes n to place the magnitude of the coming disaster into proportion, ìModeling by
colleagues in Switzerland shows that such a landslide could trigger a
so-called mega-tsunami, which has an initial wave height of 650 metres
(2,130 feet) and moves out over the ocean at speeds up to 720 km/h (450
mph)î (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/956280.stm) By the time
such a wave crossed the Atlantic, its power would have diminished but it
could still wreak havoc up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) inland. Canít
happen? Think again. In 1958 a rockslide created wave in Alaska more than
1,500 feet high, smashed into the coastal community of Lituya Bay. The
rockslide occurred along the eastern wall of the Gilbert Inlet: ìThe
mass of rock striking the surface of the bay created a giant splash, which
sent water surging to a height of 1720 feet across the point opposite the
inlet. This initial sheet of water stripped all vegetation from the point,
leaving a bare rock face.î The mega
tsunami from La Palma could devastate Americans from Boston to Miami in
one splash. In 1998, a huge tsunami, caused by a landslide under water,
submerged large parts of Papua New Guinea, killing an estimated 2,000
people. Will these be
the last days of America? Our Place
in The Cosmos According to
acclaimed physicist Michio Kaku though, the rise and fall not only of
enormous reptiles but of intelligent life as well may be common throughout
the universe. We all must live in a troubled neighborhood. In a universe
full with black holes, comets, supernovae, predatory virus, and runaway
planetary forces, few civilizations survive long enough to develop
technologies to harness the cosmic and planetary forces that will
ultimately snuff them out. Kaku
speaks about ìthe laws of planetary evolutionî: ìAny
advanced civilization must grow in energy consumption faster than the
frequency of life-threatening catastrophes (e.g. meteor impacts, ice ages,
supernovas, etc.). If they grow any slower, they are doomed to extinction.
This places mathematical lower limits on the rate of growth of these
civilizations.î Kaku
says that to survive requires growing sources of energy just to keep pace
with demand, "Specifically,
we can rank civilizations by their energy consumptionî And
America leads our world in energy consumption. Unfortunately, we derive
most of our energy from a commodity that we donít have enough of, oil.
According to some, we can begin to find the alternative resources to build
a secure energy future right here within our borders. But
others, already invested in the infrastructure of the past have another
plan for us. What they donít have for themselves, they can just steal
from those who do. Americaís
most giant corporations have Oil rich Islam staring down the barrels of
their hired guns. But while Exxon and Unocal drool at the prospect of how
they can best divie up the loot from what may later be known as
Historyís greatest armed robbery, itís time the rest of us pause to
think outside the box. Consider.
Our planetís limited supply of oil was created on earth millions of
years ago and will eventually either run out or become thermodynamically
and economically worthless. And remember, it takes energy to drill for oil let alone refine and transport it for market. In order for civilization to benefit from an energy resource, the finished product must be able to release more energy when put to work, than was used to prepare and develop it. As the easy to find oil is exhausted, the more difficult to extract oil that remains is less useful. Eventually, despite advances in drilling technology, the worldís oil will become less attractive than available alternatives or may simply become worthless as a source of useful energy. As
that day approaches, we live in an America long since petroformed by the
oil industry from a land of independent family farms and businesses, to a
nation dependent like serfs on their lord, on the barons of oil for
everything from fuel to fertilizer. Today as we watch without protest, a
new Feudalism is being forged worldwide by their mighty armies, our
indignation subdued by the prospect of fueling our SUVs with cheap ill
begotten oil. And
we will kill for them. Finding
the Itís
a measurement that really matters. Kaku cites the work of a noted
astronomer, "In
a seminal paper published in 1964 in the Journal of Soviet Astronomy,
Russian astrophysicist Nicolai Kardashev theorized that advanced
civilizations must therefore be grouped according to three types: Type I,
II, and III, which have mastered planetary, stellar and galactic forms of
energy, respectively. He calculated that the energy consumption of these
three types of civilization would be separated by a factor of many
billions.î Will
we sustain ourselves long enough to reach even the first rung on the
ladder? Letís hope so. If we donít, we will simply join the growing
list of extinct species found on our planet and thought to riddle the
universe. Kaku must think we have a long way to go just to get on the
first rung, "A
Type One civilization is one that controls the energy resources of its
planet. This civilization can control the weather, prevent earthquakes,
mine deep in the earth's crust, and harvest the oceans. This civilization
has already completed the exploration of its solar systemî. A
recent report by Alex
Johnson of
MSNBC that demonstrates that our actions in the Mideast are
tailored for an energy policy catering not to the available resources on
our table, but to the proprietary interests of Big Oil and their lust for
other peopleís resources. Johnson said, ìIf
you think of U.S. oil production as a six-pack ... of petroleum, four of
the cans are empty. Weíre kind of a black hole for energy.î Johnson
also quotes George Sterzinger, executive director of the Renewable Energy
Policy Project, ìThere are technologies that exist now [that] could
replace looming shortfalls in fossil resourcesÖR&D has paid offî Truth?
In the year 2000, U.S. energy consumption was estimated at 10^2
quadrillion Btu, a staggering figure. Incredibly though, more than 10
million more quadrillion units of solar energy hits the ground on American
soil each day than we used
that whole year! We
could build a better mousetrap. The rayís of the sun could used to
generate cost effective electricity, to grow biofuels, or manufacture
hydrogen to fuel vehicles. In a free market, theyíd beat a path to our
door. Johnson wrote to his mainstream readers, ìBut,
alternative energy advocates say, the game is rigged. They complain that
those shortcomings could be surmounted with adequate federal support, and
they accuse the government of talking a good game but failing to
deliver.î Talking
about Big Oil, Johnson pointed out, ìSince Bush took office, his
administration has directed a total of $6 billion in subsidies toward
conservation, fuel efficiency and renewable resources, less than a quarter
of the $27 billion it has spent on fossil fuels, according to an analysis
by The New York Times.î So much for free enterprise. Fact is the deck is stacked. Someoneís already decided that what we donít have weíll just steal. Speaking
to the mainstream, Johnson himself admits, ìThe U.S. energy challenges
are much more grave than the president, the Senate or the House has
recognized, than anybody has ever articulated to the American people.î And
civilizationís need for energy may know no bounds. Consider these words
from Kaku, ìA Type Two civilization is one that controls the power of
the sun itself. This does not mean passively harnessing solar energy; this
civilization mines the sun. The energy needs of this civilization are so
large that it directly consumes the power of the sun to drive its
machines. This civilization will begin the colonization of local star
systems.î And
then what? The
Death Sentence I
learned from Jay Hansonís unrelenting study of the oil industry (http://dieoff.org), that in the '50s they could produce 50 barrels of energy for every
barrel consumed producing finished products for the market. By the
nineties, the ration had fallen to 5 barrels to 1. By the year 2005, the
industry will just break even-it will be necessary to use as much energy
to produce any given quantity. Oil
production peaked in the lower forty eight states decades ago and even
with the potential production of fields in Alaska, we will still remain
dependent on imports if we plan to continue selling our big cars. Soon
though, because of the thermodynamic costs, it wonít be logical to look
for new oil anywhere in the US because, even if you could sell oil for
$500 a barrel, exploring, drilling, and transporting it to market would
consume more energy than it would recover. The
Oil companies already know this. They have to try harder. They have long
since outgrown the producing oil reserves in this country and they now
have literally set their sights on the low hanging fruit in the Caspian
Sea and the vast reserves of Iraq. Of course though, even these
thermodynamically rich resources wonít be around forever amid
exponentially growing worldwide demand. So they want to strike while the
iron is hot. And
Unocal, Halliburton, Exxon, and their off shore clones have worked hard to
install a national leadership to do their bidding for them. They had to
because the cost of doing business has gotten so much higher. In this case
though, they found a way to offset the high costs of acquisition. They can
get to the thermodynamically good stuff with taxpayer-subsidized
munitions. Once at the oil patch, the rest will be childís play. Fact
is the oil companies have already recovered the easy stuff. Oil is simply
becoming more and more thermodynamically expensive worldwide and now in
order to survive, Oil companies need to concentrate on the low hanging
fruit, the ìelephant findsî, the
ones found in other peopleís countries. MSNBCís
Johnson, quoting petro industry sources point out, ìThe U.S. economy
runs on oil, and it does so because it is cheap and convenient ó ëit
isnít any more complicated than that,í an industry official said.î Simple
but sad. Through the miracle of petroforming, competing energy sources
arenít as versatile as petroleum. They even invented a word for it.
Johnson says, ìTheyíre
not what the industry calls ëfungible,í meaning they canít be used
for a wide spectrum of applicationsî. Like
producing our food. The
bad news is, when the oil supply ultimately fails, absent alternative
technologies, the worldís food supply will go with it. But when it comes
to developing alternative technologies though, in a government controlled
by former oil company kingpins, as Johnson quotes George Sterzinger,
Executive Director of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, ìpolicies
donít move in that direction.î Food and energy go hand in glove. Since all our energy eggs have been put in the oil basket, the fate of one will determine the fate of the other. The U.S. Geological Survey has said that Oil discovery is about to peak worldwide and absent an alternative, there will be more at stake for us than just our bragging rights to being an advanced civilization. Starvation may become the rule in a world without energy. Kaku says, ìEven
an advanced civilization is bound by the laws of thermodynamics,
especially the Second Law, and can hence be ranked by the energy at their
disposal.î Then
ours wonít even make the charts. In
reality, because there is in only a dwindling supply of energy that can be
sucked from the well, absent an alternative, we will be living in an
"energy limited economy". Hanson offers this definition, http://dieoff.com/page185.htm
"An
'energy-limited economy' is one where more energy cannot be had at any
price. The global economy will become 'energy-limited' once global oil
production peaksÖ." And that could
happen soon but when it does, whenever it does, it could mean more trouble
than just lining up at the filling station. Consider the dependency of
agriculture on oil. Hanson points out, http://dieoff.org/page185.htm "Food
grains produced with modern, high-yield methods (including packaging and
delivery) now contain between four and ten calories of fossil fuel for
every calorie of solar energy." Hanson adds, Again citing
other sources, Hanson states, Following the
peak of oil production, absent an alternative, Hanson notes, Hanson adds
grimly, "Obviously the death sentence for billions of people has
already been issued". The
Type One Club ìCivilization
will develop a new agriculture free from the petrochemicals now used for
its existence or time will run out before we even understand what we have
done to ourselves.î And thereís another danger. Kaku calls it the ìUranium Boundaryî. We can build bombs that could end civilization, but we are a long way from using nuclear power to produce any kind of clean net energy. Todayís fission based nuclear plants are net energy losers and the more promising fusion technologies of tomorrow require many times more energy to operate than they can currently produce. The problem is that the development of civilization sustaining energy sources requires long-term investment. It
may just be though, that Unocal has already reasoned that thereís not
going to be enough time or enough food to go around for everyone, so it
might as well be ìthemî that goes. They will stock their cupboards
with whatever they need to hunker down for the long haul and they may even
want to keep some of the rest of us around to till their soil along the
way. There are probably many among us that would be content to go along for that ride. Itís the old ìthem or usî. If that sounds good to you go for it! Otherwise
face it. Allowing
ourselves to steal oil from one another is just the most recent
demonstration of the lengths a desperate few will go to remain in control.
All the gasoline-fired engines in the world canít turn back the tides of
the ocean or divert the explosive fury of even the smallest volcano. Sure,
that privileged few might survive, for a while at least, but for most of
us, it just wonít work. But thatís all in the future right? In this the Age of the Consumer Economy, we have been carefully conditioned to expect immediate gratification. Given the right mix of consumer products, say remote controlled cable TV and your favorite aspartame laced diet cola, we can trade worry for happiness. Still, even school kids are taught that crime doesnít pay. In the case of Unocal and their corporate collaborators though, itís also a waste of our time. Granted that justice, though certain may not always seem swift. But considering thereís already an undiscovered comet out there with our name on it, time may be the one thing that we just donít have enough of. So
for those not already numbed by neurotoxic consumables or the info warfare
waged upon us by our media and the elite brokers that use them to convince
us all will be OK if we just buy more of the products that make their top
investors rich, there will have to be another way. Although there may be enough oil left in the ground to keep our SUVís speeding down the breakdown lanes of the worldís highways at least for a few more years, our chemical rockets and diesel engines will no more re-excavate the slopes of the Cumbre Vieja volcano than take humans to the reaches of our solar system. But
we can rediscover the energy of sunlight, reform agriculture, and develop
an economy of efficiency. It may or may not be too late but only by doing
so, can we extend the lifespan of civilization and even hope to gain
admittance to some Type One Club of survivor civilizations. Of course
policies donít move in that direction though and we may just be too
preoccupied now to start doing so. In the meantime, by betting the farm on our dwindling fossil legacy we will be burning the bridge between our geological history and our long-term hope for survival. Along the way, our hands dutifully locked in a stranglehold on the wheel, we leave ourselves vulnerable to the broadside awaiting us around the next curve from the apocalyptical forces of planetary change that foretell our extinction. The shameless taking of cheap oil from Peter to give to Paul will be making somebody else rich by the bloodshed of countless others, our own progeny included, but it too will soon run out. Foolís gold. When the party is over, some of us may be fat and sassy but there will likely be a lot fewer humans in the world to bully around, untold collateral damage on the home front, and little else to assure the survival of our seed. The
short score? As for the rest of us. The vast riches of our once and future masters will do us little or no good, save for some scraps that fall from their tables. Though they are mighty, the explosive fury of their bombs will pale compared with the unrestrained destructive forces of nature that will be left poised to annihilate our planet. And
we have been well trained to play our part. Eat, drink, and be happy.
Without dumb luck though, the finite fossil fuel legacy of earthís past
will not get us through tomorrow, when humanity might die. Kaku
suggests that the universe is littered with the corpses of civilizations
that failed to reach the Type One high ground of energy needed to
counter-balance the unimaginable power of cosmic forces that both create
and destroy. Either we will divest ourselves of the oil-slicked bonds that chain us to our addictions and to those that foster the illusions needed to keep us dependent upon them, or we will perish. It will be one way or it will be the other. |
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